Free tool

Is the opportunity big enough — or are you chasing a niche?

Describe your product and target customer. We’ll estimate how many people could buy, how many you can actually reach, and how many you’d realistically win in year one — then tell you whether the math supports a real business.

Estimate my market →~3 minutes · 1 free run/month, +2 with email

How it works

Three steps. About three minutes.

01

Describe what you sell

What it is, who it's for, where you can deliver it, your price, and how often the same customer buys.

02

We size three layers

Could buy → Can reach → Could win in year one. Plain English, no TAM/SAM jargon. Each layer shows our reasoning.

03

Get the verdict

Three-band read: too small, borderline, or plenty of room. With the public anchors we used and the risks worth watching.

Why this beats Googling “market size”

Sized for your actual situation — not a generic industry report.

Bottom-up, not top-down. We estimate from your actual customer profile and geography — anchored to public stats — instead of starting with an industry total and slicing it down.

Reasoning shown. Every population number comes with the math and the public anchor we used. You can sanity-check it instead of trusting a black box.

Plain English. No TAM, SAM, or SOM. Just: people who could buy, people you can reach, people you'd realistically win.

Honest verdict. A three-band read on whether the opportunity supports a viable business — for your stage, not against a generic threshold.

What happens to your data

  • Your inputs are sent to Claude (Anthropic) to generate the estimate. Anthropic doesn’t train on API data.
  • We don’t store your product description, target customer description, or geography detail.
  • Optionally, you can share anonymized aggregates (geography, frequency, price/customer-count buckets, verdict) so we can understand patterns. Default: off. You opt in on the results page.
  • Estimates are directional, not market research. Treat numbers as ranges, not promises.

Ready to see if the opportunity is big enough?

No account. No credit card. Most users finish in under three minutes.

Estimate my market →